NIESR estimated that UK economy activity fell by -9.3%, a smaller drop than during the full lockdown in Spring. As for Q4, there would be a -1.5% decline in activity, following 9.7% mom growth in December. They now expect GDP at year end to be some -8.5% lower than it was at the end of 2019.
“Today’s ONS data show that the fourth quarter got off to a ponderous start even before the second lockdown in England was imposed. Survey data suggest that although the economic impact of the second lockdown in November was smaller than the first, it does seem more likely than not that the final quarter of the year will show little or no overall growth in GDP with the recovery shuddering to a halt. While the rollout of the vaccine offers some positive momentum, the final act of Brexit is likely to offset that in the early months of 2021.” Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting
