Sun, Oct 17, 2021 @ 04:14 GMT
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USD/CNH staying in consolidation after strong China data, down trend in force

China’s industrial production rose 7.0% yoy in November, up from October’s 6.9% yoy, matched expectations. Retail sales rose 5.0% yoy, up from October’s 4.3% yoy, but missed expectation of 5.1% yoy. Auto sales rose 11.8% yoy while household appliances sales rose 5.1% yoy. Communications equipment sales even jumped 43.6% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 2.6% ytd yoy, up from October’s 1.8% ytd yoy, beat expectation of 2.6%. Private sector fixed-asset investment rose 0.2% ytd yoy, turned positive from October -0.7%.

USD/CNH recovers mildly today as consolidation form 6.4960 extends. Downside momentum has been diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But outlook stays bearish as long as 6.5968 resistance holds. The down trend from 7.1953 medium term top should still extend to 61.8% retracement of 6.0153 to 7.1953 at 6.4661. There we’d expect strong support to bring a sustainable corrective rebound.

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