New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -4.1 in March, comparing to preliminary reading at 0, and down from February’s 7. Own Activity Outlook dropped to 16.6 (prelim. at 17.4), down from 21.3. Export intentions dropped to 4.5, down from 5.1. Investment intentions dropped to 11.9, down from 15.6. Employment intentions rose to 14.4, up from 10.6. Pricing intentions rose to 47.3, up from 46.2.
ANZ said: “The March snap lockdowns make Business Outlook data a little harder to interpret. However, it is consistent with our view that as the demand overshoot wanes and the tourists are missed more and more, the economy will go largely sideways this year. The quicker cooling we now expect in the housing market plays into this theme as well. The vaccine rollout and the subsequent border re-opening will be game-changers, though it won’t be click-of-a-switch stuff. But there’s a path to the new normal, whatever precisely that looks like, and we’re on it. We’ll be keeping an eye on construction for possible bumps in the road.”
