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US to release NFP today, EUR/USD ready for breakout?

The US non-farm payroll day is today. Markets are expecting 290k job growth in August, slowed from July’s 528k. Unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 3.5%. Average hourly earnings growth are expected to slow from 0.5% mom to 0.3% mom.

Looking at related economic data, ADP reported showed only 132k private job growth, well below expectations of 300k. However, ISM manufacturing employment improved notably from 49.9 to 52.8, back in expansion. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims ticked down to 247k.

A disastrous NFP print is not expected today. Anything between 150 and 350k wouldn’t alter the current paths of the markets. However, another month of strong earnings growth should reinforce Fed’s swift tightening path with another 75bps hike this month.

As for market reactions, a major focus is on whether EUR/USD would finally break out from range to resume larger down trend, and accelerate away from parity.

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