San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a WSJ interview that she expects interest rate to rise from the current 4.25-4.50% to 5.00-5.25%. But she added that “doing it in more gradual steps does give you the ability to respond to incoming information.”
Daly said the “case can be made for either” a 25bps or 50bps hike in February. But at the same time, “I want to be data dependent, not wall off a 50 basis point increase.”
She expects unemployment to rise from current 3.5% to 4.5-4.6% as tightening continues. Inflation, now running at 5.5%, will fall to low 3% range by the end of 2023, and closer to 2% in 2024.