HomeLive CommentsECB SPF downgrades 2023 headline inflation forecasts, upgrades core

ECB SPF downgrades 2023 headline inflation forecasts, upgrades core

In ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2 2023, respondents downgraded their expectations for headline HICP inflation in 2023 downward. The lower headline inflation expectations are primarily attributed to expectations of reduced energy price inflation, particularly for natural gas. Headline inflation expectations for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are now at 5.6%, 2.6%, and 2.2%, respectively, compared to Q1 forecasts of 5.9%, 2.7%, and 2.1%.

On the other hand, expectations for HICP inflation excluding food and energy in 2023 were revised upward, primarily results from recent data outturns and higher wage growth forecasts. Core inflation projections are at 4.9% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024, and 2.3% in 2025, comparing to prior forecasts of 4.4%, 2.8% and 2.3% respectively.

Real GDP growth is now projected at 1.2% in 2023, 1.6% in 2024, and 1.4% in 2025, compared to prior forecasts of 1.4%, 1.7%, and 1.4%.

Full release here of ECB SPF here.

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