Austrian ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, one of the more hawkish voices, signaled that a 25bps cut is “probable” at the December meeting. While a larger, half-point cut isn’t “impossible”, it’s unlikely.
Holzmann emphasized caution, saying, “I’m still concerned that inflation might prove stronger than expected,” reflecting his hesitation in moving too quickly toward easing.
Despite acknowledging some downside risks, he remarked, “I don’t see enough of them to conclude that they dominate,” adding that the view of risks being tilted to the downside is still a minority on the ECB Governing Council.
Separately, Slovenia’s ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle echoed the sentiment, expressing support for “going to neutral in measured steps.”
Vasle noted that while data has shown improvement, inflation “has not yet been defeated,” and discussions about undershooting the inflation target are premature. He further commented, “Once we get closer to neutral, it may be appropriate to align our language accordingly.”
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