Yen accelerated higher in US session as the selloff in NASDAQ intensified. Profit-taking in heavyweight technology and semiconductor names deepened concerns that valuations in the AI space may have run too far, too fast. The move fueled risk aversion and sparked a flight to traditional safe havens, leaving commodity currencies under heavy pressure.
Kiwi and Aussie bore the brunt of the market shift. For the New Zealand Dollar, the weakness was compounded by RBNZ’s dovish 25bps cut earlier in the day. Fresh projections showed policymakers still see scope for one more cut this year and another early in 2026, signaling a deeper easing cycle than markets had been positioned for.
Technically, NZD/JPY is now pressing an important support at 38.2% retracement of 79.79 to 89.05 at 85.51. Firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 83.32. In case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 86.65 support turned resistance holds.
More importantly, rejection by 55 W EMA keeps the down trend from 99.01 (2024 high) intact. Further downside acceleration should at least bring another test on 79.79 low.
AUD/JPY’s decline from 97.41 also resumed by breaking through 94.88 support. Further decline is now in favor back to 38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 97.41 at 93.06. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 90.37 next.
Just as in NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY’s rejection by 55 W EMA keeps the down trend from 109.36 (2024 high) intact. Any downside acceleration would at least bring a retest on 86.03 low.
