Canada’s retail sales climbed 1.5% mom to CAD 70.2B in June, though the gain fell just short of expectations of 1.6% mom. The increase was broad-based, with all nine subsectors contributing, led by food and beverage retailers.
Excluding autos, sales rose an even stronger 1.9% mom, more than doubling forecasts of 0.9% mom, suggesting underlying consumer spending remains resilient.
In volume terms, retail sales advanced 1.5% mom in June, reinforcing that the pick-up was not purely price-driven. On a quarterly basis, sales grew 0.4% qoq, with volumes up 0.7% qoq, pointing to a modest but positive contribution from consumption to Q2 GDP.
However, early signals from Statistics Canada suggest the momentum could be fading. The agency’s advance estimate shows sales likely slipped -0.8% in July mom, raising the risk that strong second-quarter consumption may not carry through into the third.
