ECB meeting accounts from October showed unanimous agreement to keep all three key interest rates unchanged, with policymakers noting that both the inflation outlook and incoming activity data had broadly aligned with September’s baseline. The economy was still expanding despite global headwinds, giving the Governing Council confidence that the current stance remained appropriate.
Members highlighted that December will bring critical new information, including a fresh set of staff projections extending to 2028 for the first time. These forecasts will offer a “clearer picture of the outlook at that horizon”.
However, the accounts revealed differing views on whether the rate-cutting cycle has fully run its course. Some members argued that the favorable outlook meant that “should not be fine-tuned” in response to “moderate and temporary fluctuations” of inflation.
Others cautioned that the Governing Council must remain “entirely open-minded,” noting that another rate cut could be justified if downside risks intensified or if projected inflation undershoots persisted. That viewpoint stressed that the bar for action should be “no higher than normal”.
