China’s December trade data surprised to the upside, pointing to resilient external demand despite ongoing tariff tensions. Exports surged 6.6% yoy, more than double expectations of 3.0%. Imports rose 5.7% yoy, far exceeding forecasts of 0.9% and marking the strongest growth since September last year. The trade balance posted a USD 114.1B surplus, broadly in line with expectations.
However, the headline strength masked a deepening collapse in trade with the US. Shipments to the US plunged -30% yoy, extending a ninth straight month of contraction, while imports from the US fell -29% yoy. By contrast, China’s trade with other regions remained robust. Exports to the EU and ASEAN climbed 12% and 11% respectively. While imports from Europe jumped 18%. Imports from Southeast Asia declined -5%.
For the full year, exports grew 5.5% while imports were flat, driving China’s trade surplus to a record USD 1.19T, up 20% from 2024. Trade with the US weakened sharply amid tariff frictions, with exports down -20% and imports falling -14.6%.
Commenting on the data, General Administration of Customs spokesperson Lv Daliang called for dialogue and negotiation, stressing that China–US trade relations should remain mutually beneficial.
