Oil prices edged lower today after OPEC+ agreed to keep output unchanged for March. Sunday’s brief meeting reaffirmed earlier decisions to freeze planned output increases through the first quarter of 2026.
Those increases—amounting to roughly 2.9 million barrels per day—were scheduled to be phased in from April through December 2025 by eight producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, representing about 3% of global demand. With seasonal consumption typically weaker early in the year, the group has opted to stay patient.
What stood out was not what OPEC+ said, but what it avoided saying. The statement offered no clues on production plans beyond March, effectively keeping all options open. With U.S.–Iran tensions rising and crude prices having pushed to six-month highs last week on fears of potential military escalation, that strategic ambiguity is likely intentional.
Against that backdrop, today’s pullback in WTI looks more corrective than trend-changing. Technically, the dip helps confirm a short-term top at 66.55. WTI now appears to be consolidating the five-wave rally from the 54.98 low. While deeper retracement cannot be ruled out in the near term, downside should be limited. Strong support is expected near the 38.2% retracement of 54.98 to 66.55 at 62.13, where buying interest is likely to re-emerge.
Beyond the short-term noise, the broader technical picture has improved materially. The earlier break above 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 54.98 at 64.10 argues that the entire sell-off from last year’s highs has likely been completed. In that context, the rise from 54.98 is tentatively viewed as the third leg of the larger pattern that began at 55.20. As long as the 55 D EMA (now at 60.14) holds, the medium-term bias remains to the upside for 61.8% retracement at 69.74 and potentially beyond at a later stage.
Unless geopolitical risks—particularly around Iran—ease decisively, any near-term dips may continue to attract buyers rather than signal a reversal.
