On Sunday, the OPEC+ “V8” coalition took a proactive stance by accelerating production hikes to 206,000 bpd starting in April. This move—surpassing the 137,000 bpd initially anticipated—serves as a strategic pivot to buffer a market shaken by the sudden U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran. While the alliance officially points to “market fundamentals,” the timing is clearly a response to the geopolitical flashpoint in the Middle East.
Technically, WTI exhibited extreme volatility at the Monday open, surging past 75 before settling to trade near 70. Despite the OPEC+ supply boost, the near-term outlook remains bullish so long as the 67.36 resistance turned support level holds. Sustained trading above 70 psychological mark should open the door for a retest of 78.87 key resistance (2025 high). That should be the “line in the sand” for the current bull run.
While a firm break of 78.87 isn’t yet expected, a clean break above it would signal a structural trend reversal, unwinding the multi-year downtrend from of 131.82 (2022 high). That could happen in the “nightmare scenario” of a total blockade in the Gulf, that could easily propel prices toward triple digits.
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