NFP Expectation: 189k growth, unemployment to drop to 4.0%, wage growth at 0.3%

While the trade war drama continues, with intention of escalation from Trump, there are other issues that’s worth a look. Non-farm payroll report is still a major focus of the day.

Markets are expecting NFP to show 189k growth in March, down from February’s 313k. Unemployment rate is expected to drop further to 4.0%. Wage growth remains the key for Fed’s tightening path. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.3% mom in March.

Here is a summary of preceding job data:

• ADP private sector jobs grew a solid 241k
• ISM manufacturing employment dropped to 57.3, down fro 59.7
• ISM non-manufacturing employment rose to 56.6, up from 55.0
• Conference board consumer confidence dropped to 127.7, down from 130.0

The data were solid even though they don’t point to that stellar 313k job growth in February. But 189k should be easy to achieve.

Here are some other NFP previews that’s worth a look:

• NFP Preview: Wage Growth Remains Key Focal Point
• What To Expect From US NFP
• Dollar Looks To Jobs Data & Fed Chair Powell’s Speech For Direction