Former ECB President Mario Draghi Italy’s New Prime Minister
Market movers today
There are no big market movers today.
Key data this week will be German ZEW (Tuesday), US retail sales (Wednesday) and Flash PMI for US and the euro area (Friday). FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be scrutinized for any discussion on tapering of bond purchases. News on...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Friday’s bad news (poor US payrolls) turned good news for markets. It revived calls for ample additional US stimulus and as such reinforced the reflation trade. Reflationary thinking continued this week supported by public comments from the Biden administration (Yellen). The administration is gradually leaving the idea of bipartisan...
Dollar Stays Weak but Buying Turns to Swiss Franc and Yen
Dollar stays generally weak entering into US session. But as risk appetite cools slightly, buying focus is turning to Swiss Franc and Yen. Euro is currently following the two as the next strongest. Canadian Dollar is following Dollar as second weakest, then Aussie and Kiwi.
Technically, focuses will be on...
Italian yield drops to record low as Draghi wins backing from politicians and investors
Italy 10-year yield dropped to record low of 0.501% in early trading and remains low for the moment. Former ECB President Mario Draghi seemed to be winning confidence from a wide spectrum of political parties, as well as investors, for forming a new government.
Draghi will continue to meet with...
Record Highs Galore
Stock markets are off to a decent start again this week with the US seeing more record highs on Wall Street.
This week is shaping up to be much quieter (famous last words) but against the backdrop of an encouraging earnings season, better Covid news and a massive stimulus package...
Market Rally Despite Cheap Vaccine’s Trouble To Fight Virus Mutation
Market movers today
Today we get have interesting data out of Denmark. Demand indicators suggest we will see both industrial production and exports at decent levels.
We also get industrial production from Germany. December orders declined indicating slowdown at the beginning of the year, but manufacturing PMIs remain elevated...
Italy Seeks To Bring Draghi Out Of Retirement, But It Can’t Help The Euro
Remember Mario Draghi, the former ECB President who proclaimed to do “Whatever it Takes” to save the Euro during the 2012 debt crisis? He's back! After former Italian PM Renzi withdrew his party from current PM Conte's coalition, Conte was unable to form a new government. Enter “Super Mario”....
ADP Impresses, Crude Rally Continues, Gold Stumbles on Strong US Data
US stocks initially pushed higher on big-tech earnings, expectations Senate Democrats will pass Biden's stimulus plan on a party-line vote, and after the ADP private payroll report shows the labor market rebounded in January. The morning rally fizzled at the open as some investors quickly headed for the sidelines...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Today’s economic calendar focused on euro zone CPI for January, which rebounded for the first time in six months into positive territory (0.9% y/y, up from -0.3% in December). Core inflation also jumped from 0.2% to 1.4% y/y, the highest level in more than five years. However, this acceleration...
A Sustained Break Below 1.2011 Would Put The EUR/USD Uptrend On Hold
Markets
The risk-on rebound from Monday simply continued yesterday. The 'noise' from the Reddit short squeeze gradually evaporated. Equity markets again enjoyed the prospect of more US fiscal stimulus as the Biden administration steps up preparations to pass legislation through Congress, with or (most likely?) without bipartisan support. Better than...
Sunset Market COmmentary
Markets
The US dollar started the week somewhat surprisingly on a solid footing. The trade-weighted dollar tested the year-to-date high just below 91. USD/JPY extends its comeback after piercing through the upper end of the downward trend channel since Summer last week. The pair currently changes hands in the high...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Italian PM Conte officially resigned today. Italian president Mattarella in a statement said he will first hold a round of talks before nominating someone to forge a fresh coalition. If Conte’s gamble plays out well, he’ll be mandated to form his third government in four years. Mattarella could also...
Good And Bad Vaccine News, Italian PM Resigns
Market movers today
Today's agenda is quite light ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Today, Merkel, Macron and Von der Leyen will speak at the (virtual) WEF in Davos. IMF will update its world economic outlook.
After Italian PM Conte announcing his resignation yesterday night, markets will focus on Italian...
Inauguration Day In The US
Market movers today
Today's key event is President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration. Normally this is just a formality but the concern is whether there will be another riot on the back of the inauguration. This, however, should not cause any major market reaction, in our view. We still think a...
Wall Street Eyes Yellen Testimony, Dollar Eases
Stocks perk up after slow start to the week as focus turns to Yellen and earnings
Hopes that Biden administration will spend “big” bolsters sentiment
Euro steadies as Italian worries abate, dollar retreats
Yellen to tell US lawmakers to “act big”
After a sluggish start to the week, risk sentiment...
Yellen Is Expected To Advocate Further Stimulus Measures To Support The Restart Of The Economy
Markets
With US markets closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr Holiday, trading took a slow start of the week. Asian equity indices finished mixed with China outperforming in the wake of better-than-expected Q4 GDP data. After opening in the red, a protracted and gradual bottoming out process...
Political Uncertainty In Italy As Well As Supply Of Long – Dated Bonds Driving The European Market
Market movers today
Another quiet day in terms of economic data releases with German ZEW survey data for January at 11:00 CET being the highlight of the day.
Italian PM Conte won the first vote of confidence yesterday in the Italian parliament's lower house. Today, he is facing a...
Strong China GDP Can’t Shake Off Virus Blues, Dollar Firms
Markets wrestle vaccine and stimulus optimism with worsening near-term gloom
Upbeat Chinese GDP highlights global growth disparity as US retail sales sag
Euro stuck in the doldrums, eyes Italian confidence votes
China notches up positive full-year growth in 2020
As most major economies struggle under the weight of the pandemic,...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Today’s main trading event already occurred during Asian dealings, when a CNN report revealed soon-to-be US Biden could announce a new stimulus plan totaling $2000 billion. The news propelled US bond yields several basis points higher, thus ending the bull flattening of the yield curve after this week’s supply...
Euro’s Decline Continues as Italy Yields Jump, Dollar and Yen Mixed
Euro's broad based decline continues today, dragging down the Swiss Franc, and to a lesser extent Sterling too. Italy bench yield jumps sharply on increasing risk of fresh elections in the summer. On the other hand, commodity currencies continue to be strong, as supported by overall solid risk sentiments....
Investors Brace For Biden’s Stimulus Plan
US President-elect Biden will unveil his stimulus proposal today
Size and details of the plan crucial for fate of dollar and equities
Markets quiet overall waiting for Biden, ignore Trump impeachment
Fed chief Powell speaks, ECB minutes coming up, Italian politics eyed
Dollar's fortunes hang on Biden's proposal
The main...
Trump Impeached, Political Chaos In Italy And Fed Push Back
Market movers today
In the US, President-elect Biden is set to release his stimuli proposal today, including an expected USD2000 in direct transfer and expanded unemployment benefits. Unconfirmed media reports say that Biden is likely to propose a total package of USD2,000bn.
The ECB minutes from the December meeting...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Markets enjoyed an outright risk-on session as US citizens are heading to vote for a new president and part of Congress. Last week, market uncertainty on the potential impact of the second corona wave and on the outcome of the US presidential election were enough a reason for investors...
ECB Visco: Monetary policy must remain expansive for a long time
ECB Governor Council member Ignazio Visco told Il Corriere della Sera newspaper, "price changes tend to be very low, if not negative, and a gap has been created with our goal of price stability, with effects that can be dangerous". Because of this, monetary policy "monetary policy must be...
Trade surplus in Germany and Italy widened, EUR/CAD mildly higher
Germany exports dropped -9.4% yoy to EUR 96.1B in June. Imports dropped -10.0% yoy to EUR 80.5B. Trade surplus came in at EUR 15.6B. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, trade surplus widened to EUR 14.5B, up from EUR 7.6B, above expectation of EUR 10.3B. Industrial production rose 8.9%...
Yen Staying Firm But Risk Markets Refuse to Give Up
The financial markets are still refusing to commit to a direction. Major European stocks are generally higher despite broad selloff in Asia. US futures point to lower open while 10-year yield is doing its best to hold on to 0.6% handle. Swiss Franc is currently the worst performing one...
Italy industrial output rose 42.1% mom in May, well above expectations
Italy industrial output rose 42.1% mom in May, well above expectation of 19.2%. That's also much more than enough to reverse April's -20.5% mom decline. Nevertheless, for the last three months over the previous three months, productions still dropped -29.9%. Comparing with May 2019, productions dropped -20.3% yoy.
Full release...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Markets started the week in outright risk-off modus. Headlines of a jump in new Covid 19 cases from Beijing, over Tokyo and Germany to multiple states in the US, spooked markets this morning. The risk of a second wave of the coronavirus evidently questions investors’ hope on ‘V-shaped-like’ recovery....
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Markets took a guarded but overall still constructive start to the new trading week. European equities opened slightly lower after Friday’s stellar gain. However, equities are still captured in a buy-on-dips pattern and quite easily reversed the initial loss. There were no important data in the US today and...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Markets shifted to a reluctant risk-off mode awaiting a speech of US President Trump. Later today, the US president is expected to announce US action against China, a response to the country imposing a new security law and strengthening its grip on Hong Kong. European equities are mostly losing...