AUD/USD spiked lower to 0.6722 last week but recovered strongly since then. The strength of the rebound suggests a short term bottom is in place. Intraday bias remains on the upside this week for further rebound. On the downside, break of 0.7015 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low. Overall, larger down trend from 0.8135 is expected to resume later after consolidation completes.
In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is now ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
