AUD/USD’s sharp decline and break of 0.6910 support last week suggests that rebound from 0.6831 has completed at 0.7082 already. The three wave corrective structure suggests that larger decline from 0.7295 is in progress and is possibly resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.6831 support first. Break will confirm and target 0.6722 low next. On the upside, break of 0.6955 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
