AUD/USD’s rise from 0.5506 extended higher last week. While further rally could be seen, we’d continue to look for topping signal on next rise. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD is a sign of loss of upside momentum. AUD/USD will also face 55 week EMA (now at 0.6702) and then 0.6826 (2016 low). On the downside, break of 0.6050 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.5506 is stronger than expected, we’re seeing it as corrective the fall from 0.8135 only (2018 high) to 0.5506. Strong resistance should be seen from 0.6826 (2016 low) to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.6826 will argue that rise from 0.5506 is at least corrective the fall from 1.1079 (2011 high). Stronger rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7365).
In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. As long as 0.8135 resistance holds, we’d still extend another fall to 0.4773 (2001 low). We’ll maintain this view until we see clear upside, medium term impulsive structure develops.
