AUD/USD’s rise continued last week and edged higher to 0.7227, but retreated since then. Upside momentum has been clearly diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD and a short term top should be around the corner. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7063 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6776, for correcting the whole rise from 0.5506. Nevertheless, above 0.7227 will extend the rally towards 0.7323 long term EMA.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6777). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

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In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7324) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

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