Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7064; (P) 0.7100; (R1) 0.7154; More…
Stronger than expected rebound in AUD/USD and break of 0.7114 minor resistance mixed up the near term outlook. On the upside, break of 0.7243 resistance will suggests that the correction from 0.7413 has completed and bring retest of this high. On the downside, through, break of 0.7005 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.
In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6916) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.
