Sun, Nov 27, 2022 @ 16:36 GMT

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6169 resumed and accelerated higher last week. The break of 0.6680 support turned resistance carries larger bullish implication. Initial bias stays on the upside for 161.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6521 from 0.6271 at 0.6841. On the downside, below 0.6576 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.6680 support confirms medium term bottoming at 0.6169. It’s too early to call for trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 6934) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

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