AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6845 last week but quickly lost momentum and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first, and near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6641 support holds. Break of 0.6845 will target 0.6871 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 0.6641 support will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it’s too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6922) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.
