AUD/USD rebounded strongly last week but was still bounded in range of 0.6563/6804. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook also stays bearish as long as 0.6804 resistance holds, and down trend resumption through 0.6563 low is in favor at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 should indicate completion of whole fall from 0.7156, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.
In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7128) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.
