AUD/USD Weekly Report

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6898 continued last week but recovered after hitting 0.6594. Initial bias remains neutral week for consolidations. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.6719 resistance holds. Break of 0.6594 will resume the decline to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6719 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could be seen but downside should be contained above 0.6169. This will now remain the favored case as high as 0.6898 resistance holds. Nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as a corrective move to up rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). This correction could have completed at 0.6169. Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.7102) will affirm this case, and indicate that rise from 0.5506 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 0.6169 will revive long term bearish ness and turn focus back to 0.5506 low.

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