AUD/USD Weekly Report

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6894 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Decisive break of 0.6457 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6615 minor resistance will dampen this view, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be in progress. Break of 0.6457 will affirm this bearish case. Further break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

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