AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6941 continued last week but formed a temporary low at 0.6536, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6700) holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6526 will target 0.6348 support next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Firm of 0.7156 resistance will argue that the third leg has already started towards 0.8006.
 holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6526 will target 0.6348 support next.){kind=link}