AUD/USD rebounded further to 0.6616 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.6616 will resume the rise from 0.6439 to retest 0.6706 high. However, break of 0.6524 will turn bias to the downside for 0.6439 and possibly below, to extend the corrective pattern from 0.6706 with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.
