AUD/USD’s stayed in sideway trading last week as price actions from 0.7093 developed into a near term consolidation pattern. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.6420 to 0.7093 at 0.6836. On the upside, break of 0.7093 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213 next.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
In the long term picture, rise fro 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It’s still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above.
