EUR/AUD’s medium term decline from 1.6587 extended last week and reached as low as 1.3838. Intraday bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall should be seen to 1.3671 key support level. At this point, we’d still expect strong support around 1.3671 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4038 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn focus back to 1.4289 resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen but, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.