EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s rally resumed last week and took out 1.5094 resistance. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Current rise from 1.3624 should target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. On the downside, break of 1.4927 is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4669 support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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