EUR/AUD dropped further to as low as 1.5905 last week but recovered ahead of 1.5894. A short term bottom should be formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for 1.6308 support turned resistance first. Firm break there should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789 and target this resistance again. For now, in case of another decline, we’d continue to expect strong support from 1.5894 to contain downside to bring rebound. However, sustained break will carry larger bearish implications and target 1.5683 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6008) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

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In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.


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