EUR/AUD’s decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 1.4318 has completed with three waves up to 1.5227, ahead of 1.5354 resistance. But as a temporary low was formed at 1.4885, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.4885 will target 1.4597 support first. Break there will bring retest of 1.4318 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5277 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low).
