EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.4318 resumed last week and breached 1.5354 support turned resistance. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 1.5354 should indicate medium term bottoming at 1.4318. Stronger rally would be seen back to 100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5277 from 1.4759 at 1.5718. On the downside, however, break of 1.5059 will revive medium term bearishness and turn bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.5354 support turned resistance will argue that a medium term bottom was formed at 1.4318 already. It would still be too early to call for long term trend reversal. But further rise would then be seen back towards 1.6434 resistance (2021 high). However, rejection by 1.5354 will retain bearishness for extending the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) through 1.4318 at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5713) holds.
