EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.5976 last week argues that it’s already in correction to whole rally from 1.4281. As a temporary low was formed at 1.5414, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.5414 will target 1.5976 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.5329 next. However, on the upside, above 1.5739 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has finished, and bring retest of 1.5976 high.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

In the longer term picture, focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.5595). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal, and at least bring further rally to 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389. However, rejection by 55 month EMA will suggest that down trend form 1.9799 is still in progress for another low below 1.4281.

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