EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.7062 extended lower last week and the development argues that it’s already in a larger scale correction. Initial bias stays on the downside this week first. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.6000 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.6647 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7062 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5846 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

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