EUR/AUD’s rises further to as high as 1.6671 last week before retreating. The development suggests that corrective fall from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127 already. Further rise is expected as long as 1.6398 support holds. Above 1.6671 will target 1.6844 resistance to confirm this bullish case.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5858) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
