EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 1.6211 support last week. While downside momentum is a bit unconvincing, there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.6129. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 1.5950. On the upside, above 1.6272 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5970) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
