EUR/AUD’s rally from 1.5693 resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 1.7268. There is no clear sign of topping yet and initial bias stays on the upside this week. Sustained trading above of 100% projection of 1.5963 to 1.6800 from 1.6355 at 1.7192 will target 161.8% projection at 1.7709 next. On the downside, below 1.7016 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, the breach of 1.7180 key resistance (2024 high) suggests that up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Sustained trading above 1.7180 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.7682, which is also close to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.7691. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.6355 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6090) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
