EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.7245 resumed last week and the development suggests that fall from 1.8554 might have completed as a correction. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On the downside, however, break of 1.7460 support will bring retest of 1.7245 instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 is expected after the whole corrective pattern from there completes. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6240) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. Break of 1.8554 will target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. However, firm break of 1.8744 projection level with strong momentum will argue that it’s indeed resuming the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low).
