EUR/AUD gyrated lower last week but downside was contained well above 1.7588 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.7929 will resume the rebound from 1.7588 to retest 1.8155 high. On the downside, however, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7593 will bring deeper fall to 1.7245 resistance, as part of the corrective pattern from 1.8554 high.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6506) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
