EUR/AUD’s strong rebound from 1.7571 last week dampened the original bearish view. Fall from 1.8160 is likely just part of the sideway pattern from 1.8155. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.8160 first. On the downside, however, break of 1.7561 will revive the bearish case that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg, and target 1.7245 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7406) will suggest that it’s correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound form 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6501) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
