EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed last week but downside momentum has been unconvincing with bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Still, there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Further fall is expected this week to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351. However, firm break of 1.6830 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6603) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
