EUR/AUD’s down trend accelerated to as low as 1.6125 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remain neutral this week for consolidations. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6594 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.6125 will resume the fall from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.6594 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7273) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6603) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
