EUR/AUD’s sharp reversal last week and break of 1.6163 support suggests that rebound from 1.6072 has completed as a corrective move at 1.6334. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for retesting 1.6072 first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.8554.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.6617 resistance holds, down trend from 1.8554 (2025 high) should still be in progress. Break of 1.6072 is expected at a later stage for resumption. However, considering bullish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 1.6617 will confirm medium term bottoming.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6554) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
