EUR/AUD’s rally from 1.5774 resumed last week after consolidations. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.6334 resistance. Firm break there will target 1.6842 cluster resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6167 will turn bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.5774 on bullish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 1.6548) will target 1.6842, with 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 (2025 high) to 1.5774 at 1.6836, even as a corrective bounce. Though, rejection by 55 W EMA will bring retest of 1.5774 low.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.4281 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6523) holds.
