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EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF rose further to 1.1444 last week but reversed since then. The strong break of 1.1347 resistance turn supported argues that the rebound from 1.1181 might be completed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 1.1259 support first. Break will target 1.1181 low again. On the upside, above 1.1376 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.1444.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

In the long term picture, as long as key support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 holds, A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium to long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

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