Despite diminishing downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.1163 last week. Break of 1.1173 low should indicate resumption of medium term decline from 1.2555. But decisive break of 1.1154 fibonacci level is needed to confirm. But in any case, further decline is expected this week as long as 1.1256 resistance holds, even in case of recovery. Firm break of 1.1154 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1444 at 1.0930.

In the bigger picture, multiple rejection by 55 week EMA indicates medium term bearishness. Focus remains on 1.1154/98 support zone (2016 high and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154). Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole down trend from 1.2004 and long term bearish reversal. EUR/CHF should then target 1.0629 support and below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1444 resistance holds.

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In the long term picture, the current development argues that long term up trend has completed at 1.2004 after rejection of 1.2 key resistance. Sustained break of 1.1198 support will confirm this bearish case and target 1.0629 and below.


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