EUR/CHF’s sharp decline last week indicate that rise from 1.1162 has completed at 1.1476, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484. As a temporary low was formed at 1.1264, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.1264 will extend the decline from 1.1476 towards 1.1162 key support. We’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1350 will suggest that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1484 again.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed at 1.1162 after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that medium term fall from 1.2004 is merely a corrective move. That is, up trend from 0.9771 is not completed yet. Nevertheless, there is little prospect of up trend resumption yet. More range trading should be seen in medium term. However, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 will argue that the long term trend has reversed. In this case, deeper decline could be seen back to 1.0629 support and below.
