EUR/CHF’s fall from 1.1476 extended to as low as 1.1195 last week. There is no sign of bottoming yet and further decline is in favor this week towards 1.1162 key support. For now, we’d still expect strong support above 1.1162 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1292 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. However, sustained break of 1.1162 could carry larger bearish implication and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed at 1.1162 after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, sustained break of 1.1154 will confirm resumption of decline from 1.2004 and target 1.0629 support next.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that medium term fall from 1.2004 is merely a corrective move. That is, up trend from 0.9771 is not completed yet. Nevertheless, there is little prospect of up trend resumption yet. More range trading should be seen in medium term. However, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 will argue that the long term trend has reversed. In this case, deeper decline could be seen back to 1.0629 support and below.
