EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF recovered notably last week as consolidation pattern from 1.0811 extended. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and outlook is unchanged. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065). On the downside, sustained break of 1.0811 will resume larger down trend and target 1.0629 key support next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

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